Modern conflicts are increasingly networked across borders. From weapons smuggling to illicit trade, transnational networks link local violence to global supply chains. These “conflict ecosystems” can thrive in fragile and contested borderlands, which act as gateways for smuggling, trafficking, and ideological diffusion. They enable armed groups and political actors to tap into shadow economies, creating resilient systems that fuel instability far beyond their origin. Understanding these connectors is critical for policymakers seeking to design effective responses to conflict at a time of escalating instability.
XCEPT investigates these transnational linkages, combining comparative analysis with local expertise through rigorous, mixed-methods research. We reveal how these systems operate – how licit and illicit flows intersect across borders, how borderland hubs integrate into global supply chains, and how transnational networks and shadow economies sustain armed actors. Our findings equip policymakers with evidence to rethink their approaches to countering transnational threats through border management and regulation, governance, security cooperation, peacebuilding, sanctions, and other policy tools amid changing geopolitical dynamics.
Some of the key questions and lines of enquiry under this research cluster are:
- Shadow global economies and capability transfer: How armed actors leverage global networks to move money, weapons, and influence.
- Borderlands hubs, licit/illicit flows and security: Why contested spaces become nodes for licit/illicit trade and what this means for security.
- Responding to transnational conflict: Designing interventions that work across borders, from regulatory frameworks to peace operations.