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Illicit networks in the Levant: Political and economic implications in a post-war order

The project investigates the evolving patterns of illicit smuggling across the Levant, with a particular focus on how these shifts reflect and impact broader political transformations and power dynamics in the region.

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Lead researcher: Mohanad Hage Ali

Partner: Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Duration: December 2025 – December 2026

Countries: Lebanon

The project will examine how illicit actors respond to shifting geopolitical conditions, exploit weak states, and embed themselves in transnational systems. Its findings will support policy responses at national, regional and international levels. This work will build on prior XCEPT research on regional illicit economies by looking at how cross-border illicit flows in the Levant are sustained through overlapping social and political networks, and how these networks fit within the region’s political economy and transnational conflict systems.

For more information regarding this research, contact [email protected]

Research outputs

BLOG

26th March 2024

As the influence of the Assad regime and Russia declines, Iran is emerging as the main actor, which could provoke a major Israeli intervention.

BLOG

3rd June 2020

Turkey is altering the nature of Syrian border areas, perhaps presaging more far-reaching steps.

BLOG

21st January 2021

By impeding research, Egypt curtails knowledge that can help resolve crises, especially in border areas.

BLOG

15th December 2020

Because of Covid-19 restrictions, researchers have had to find alternative ways of getting information.

BLOG

27th January 2022

The attack of January 17 will force the United Arab Emirates to make one of two choices, neither of them desirable.

BLOG

27th January 2020

In conducting research in the Middle East, don’t ignore the importance of the personal.

BLOG

12th March 2024

In an interview with Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut and editor of Diwan, Carnegie’s Middl...

BLOG

23rd December 2021

Rising pressure against Lebanon from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may well be tied to Hezbollah’s role in Yemen.

BLOG

3rd June 2020

Syria’s conflict has transformed the conditions of tribal clan notables who have sought refuge in Jordan.

BLOG

22nd March 2024

A forthcoming Carnegie paper will argue that to understand Syria’s future, we will have to focus on the country’s peripheries.

BLOG

26th September 2019

As its authority has weakened, the Iraqi central government’s control over its borders has also eroded.

BLOG

10th February 2020

The country’s suffering has been exacerbated by the rise of internal borders, from which militias have greatly benefited.

ARTICLE

17th March 2025

In an interview, Yasmine Zarhloule discusses irregular migration to Europe and the shortcomings of a securitization policy.

BLOG

20th March 2025

In an interview, Mohanad Hage Ali talks about the Captagon trade’s impact on state institutions.

RESEARCH REPORT

22nd March 2023

Serbia leveraged migrating Tunisians to pressure the EU, until closing the route last November. Yet other countries will continue to use migrants to g...

BLOG

22nd July 2022

In this interview, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center’s non-resident scholar Armenak Tokmajyan talks about Sarmada, Syria’s border with Turke...

BLOG

29th April 2020

Economies in the Middle East and North Africa are suffering from supply chain problems due to the coronavirus.

PHOTO ESSAY

20th February 2020

A Yemeni scholar shares glimpses of his journey through remote eastern Yemen, where the war-torn country’s wealthy neighbors are jostling for influenc...

BLOG

2nd September 2019

Albukamal and Qaim lie on a Syrian-Iraqi boundary that has had regional implications for decades.

BLOG

22nd October 2020

The rules of what is deemed acceptable political behavior are constantly shifting in Syria, with perilous consequences.

BLOG

12th February 2025

In an interview, Kheder Khaddour discusses ongoing developments along the Syria-Lebanon border.

BLOG

26th April 2021

Jordan’s bahhara have suffered from a closed border with Syria, but efforts to resume informal trade ties continue.

VIDEO

11th June 2019

Carnegie’s Ahmed Nagi discusses his recent trip to Yemen and shares his impressions of the Houthis’ expansion.

BLOG

17th October 2024

In an interview, Kheder Khaddour and Armenak Tokmajyan discuss the country’s borders and why they have remained intact.

VIDEO

15th April 2020

In an interview, Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour discuss their recent paper on the Iraqi-Syrian border.

BLOG

29th September 2020

As the scope of the fighting in Ma’rib intensifies, the signs of an attritional conflict without end are strengthening.

BLOG

24th March 2025

The potential for rising tension in the Yemeni governorate worries those on both sides its borders.

BLOG

18th June 2020

The Yemen conflict has affected Saudi border areas and is changing the public’s thinking in the kingdom.

BLOG

22nd July 2019

The United Arab Emirates is reducing its forces in Yemen, but remains the most powerful actor in the south.

BLOG

27th June 2019

In the Iraqi governorate of Nineveh, contestation between its capital Mosul and rural communities sits alongside other ethnic, religious and sectarian...

BLOG

14th April 2021

The new coronavirus is spreading into conflict-affected states. The pandemic and efforts to contain it are much more likely to aggravate and multiply ...

VIDEO

27th April 2020

In an interview, Ahmed Nagi discusses the dangers of the coronavirus in a country already facing a terrible conflict.

BLOG

2nd June 2026

Trade statistics show why Amman has more reason than Damascus to welcome the improvement in bilateral commerce.

RESEARCH REPORT

5th April 2023

Ongoing negotiations between Syria and Türkiye may change the outlines of their border regions. But they won’t alter the basic reality of cantonizatio...

RESEARCH REPORT

27th May 2020

Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and ...

RESEARCH REPORT

31st March 2021

Over time, the Kuwait-Saudi border has developed a unique, flexible approach of firm physical boundaries but open economic boundaries. This approach...

ARTICLE

10th August 2022

After a decade of civil war, Syria’s border with Turkey is divided. Yet long-term stability will require a peace agreement that treats the border as a...

RESEARCH REPORT

10th September 2024

In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main ...

RESEARCH REPORT

26th February 2025

Climate change is challenging North Africa, particularly with water scarcity. Border towns between Morocco and Algeria face existential questions abou...

BRIEFING PAPER

19th March 2025

Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers...

RESEARCH REPORT

31st March 2020

Mahra in eastern Yemen has relied on a tribal code of conduct to escape the worst excesses of the country’s civil war. Localized forms of conflict man...

RESEARCH REPORT

29th March 2022

In Iraq’s Eastern Basra region, regional conflicts and illicit activity have contributed to environmental decay, which in turn furthers instability. U...

RESEARCH REPORT

14th July 2020

In southern Syria, the regime, opposition, foreign powers, and local groups navigate a contentious zone of conflict. Any shift in this delicate balanc...

WORKING PAPER

11th March 2024

For the Iraqi government to address sceptics’ views about the Development Road, it will need to focus on several key institutional reforms.

RESEARCH REPORT

21st September 2022

Tunisia’s planned free trade zone in Ben Guerdane has stalled while similar projects in Libya have advanced. If Tunisian authorities move quickly to r...

RESEARCH REPORT

11th June 2020

Along the Egypt-Sudan border, tensions have been rising for several decades despite limited efforts at cooperation. Both countries need to reexamine t...

RESEARCH REPORT

27th May 2021

Tunisia’s informal trade networks reflect growing trends: the country’s progressive shift away from Europe, and the rise of Turkey and China as major ...

RESEARCH REPORT

30th March 2021

The Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be geopolitically restless. Kurdish parties have taken advantage of central government weaknesses to increase t...

RESEARCH REPORT

26th October 2022

Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should help revive Yemen’s moribund economy, in bo...

RESEARCH REPORT

31st March 2020

The Iraqi-Syrian border near Qaim and Bukamal has become a magnet for conflict, as Iraqi and Syrian state actors compete with Iranian-backed nonstate ...

RESEARCH REPORT

3rd September 2020

Along the border between Tunisia and Libya, informal trade agreements led to a tight-knit border economy. But political changes in both Libya and Tuni...

WORKING PAPER

27th March 2024

Several developments have contributed to Tunisia’s transformation into a transit point for African migrants, including its porous borders, inconsisten...

RESEARCH REPORT

14th June 2021

Border markets on Yemen’s northwestern border with Saudi Arabia gave rise to a distinct economic system and bridged communities. Yet the war in Yeme...

ARTICLE

28th April 2023

Border crossings figure prominently in Iran’s strategy to ensure its control over Iraq. But despite the Iraqi population’s desire to distance itself f...

ARTICLE

9th July 2024

Bashar al-Assad’s regime has used the drug partly as a means of ensuring that Syria is reintegrated into the Arab world, allowing its leadership to re...

ARTICLE

25th January 2023

Morocco has successfully begun to connect its once-neglected eastern region to domestic and global economic resources. But it is vital to ensure that ...

BLOG

14th March 2025

The Yemeni group, like its main backer Iran, has established contacts with al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia, showing how pragmatism prevails...

ARTICLE

11th November 2020

Pouring money into health infrastructure will have little effect if qualified doctors have few incentives to stay.

ARTICLE

1st August 2024

This XCEPT article analyses how Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have determined that their national security goes beyond their physical b...

ARTICLE

23rd December 2024

The kingdom aims to foster warmer international relationships by moving away from a religious approach that earned the royal family legitimacy; howeve...

ARTICLE

25th January 2023

In recent days, Jordan has led the way in Arab countries’ rapprochement with Syria. But Amman’s experience shows that, without regional coordination,...

ARTICLE

25th February 2025

The Houthis are strengthening their regional ties, notably with the Popular Mobilization Forces, who offer them political, economic, military, and geo...

ARTICLE

1st February 2021

Protesters in the marginalized city of Tataouine have successfully forced the hand of Tunisia’s government, becoming an inspiration for other struggli...

ARTICLE

28th February 2025

The EU has responded to unwanted arrivals with ever-stricter security measures, an approach that has both led to increased human rights violations and...

ARTICLE

19th November 2024

For the foreseeable future, maritime trade through the Red Sea will remain a hostage to Ansar Allah and Iran. They will likely use this to secure conc...

ARTICLE

23rd December 2024

Competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over influence in the Yemeni governorate could lead to conflict between the two sides or their proxies, which...

ARTICLE

22nd March 2023

As the conflict in Yemen continues, one lesser-known aspect—the maritime stakes for Saudi Arabia and the UAE—will need to be addressed for the best ch...

ARTICLE

28th March 2025

Saudi Arabia’s concerns about Syria have grown since Assad’s ouster. Türkiye’s expanding presence, Iran’s struggle to regain influence, and Israel’s e...

RESEARCH REPORT

14th March 2022

This report explores how group rivalries are impeding southern unity, and how this might shape developments in a post-conflict Yemen.

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