Conflict and climate are linked in complex and increasingly urgent ways. On one hand, climate change intensifies vulnerabilities both across and within borders. Droughts, floods, and shifting seasonal patterns interact with local inequalities, gender dynamics, and illicit economies, making already fragile communities more exposed to violence and instability. In borderlands where state governance is weak, climate stress and cross-border activities converge, shaping both local survival strategies and broader patterns of conflict. On the other hand, climate mitigation and adaptation efforts themselves can have unintended consequences if they are poorly designed or implemented without local input. Large-scale projects, land management initiatives, or resource redistribution can provoke grievances, spark disputes, and exacerbate regional tensions.
XCEPT’s conflict and climate research shows how climate pressures and policy responses to them shape patterns of conflict and resilience. Rather than treating climate as an isolated environmental issue, XCEPT analyses it as a driver and amplifier of political, economic, and social change. We combine comparative analysis and geospatial mapping with locally grounded inquiry to capture both the structural and lived dimensions of climate-related insecurity. Our approach aims to generate evidence that helps policymakers anticipate emerging risks, identify pressure points, and craft responses that are both conflict-sensitive and context-aware. Our key sub-themes and workstreams include:
Climate change, informal trade, and instability: how climate pressures intersect with informal economies and governance gaps to shape patterns of instability and resilience.
Climate mitigation and conflict dynamics: Examining how global climate mitigation efforts, including critical mineral extraction, green transitions, and land-use shifts, shape local conflict drivers and political economies.
Locally driven climate adaptation and conflict stabilisation: How community-led and regional stabilisation strategies prevent and manage climate-related peace and security risks through cooperative adaptation and governance.
Cross-border natural resources management: How shared ecosystems and transboundary resource flows create both tensions and opportunities for cooperation in borderland regions