In the Sahel, climate change functions as a conflict multiplier, accelerating violence in contexts already marked by weak governance, poverty, and chronic insecurity. Drawing on research conducted in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, this policy brief examines how climate shocks, interacting with long-standing institutional failures, exacerbate pre-existing tensions and open new pathways to violent conflict across the region. The brief concludes by offering actionable, context-specific recommendations for state authorities and local, regional, and international actors operating in the Sahel.
Climate change, state fragility and non-state armed groups in the Sahel
How will changing climates fuel instability and violence in the Sahel, and what can be done to address these challenges, strengthen livelihoods, and contribute to peacebuilding?