As the two main powerbrokers in Pakistan, the military and the political elites are fundamental to the nation’s state of affairs. So, how are developments stemming from border instability affecting the balance of power between these two groups? This review approaches the question by assessing the wider context of military-civilian relations in Pakistan, and then seeing how this is changing as a result of borderlands instability.
The military has long held a dominant position in Pakistan. For some half of the country’s history, Pakistan was under direct military rule (albeit with varying forms of constitutional covering). The military has used its dominant position to build up a massive military business empire, worth billions of dollars. Political power and economic power are mutually reinforcing for the military. It therefore has very strong vested interests for holding onto power.
However, recent challenges, including instability on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are straining this situation. As the military faces growing public discontent and internal divisions, its longstanding dominance is being tested, while political elites navigate a volatile landscape marked by economic, security, and governance crises. This evolving situation raises critical questions about the future distribution of power between these elite groups in Pakistan.
This is one of two evidence reviews conducted for XCEPT exploring different aspects of the implications for Pakistan of instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands. The other review looks at how instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands plays into existing tensions in Pakistan, notably violent extremism, separatist movements, and serious and organised crime. Read it here.