The Pakistan-Afghanistan borderlands historically have been characterised by tension and hostilities, with long-standing roots. Violent extremism and terrorism originating in the borderlands has targeted tens of thousands of people across Pakistan, creating a major security challenge for the country.
Contrary to expectations, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have only become increasingly strained since the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. Having gained a safe haven from which to operate, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has increased attacks across Pakistan and encouraged other anti-state movements, including the main Baloch insurgent group, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).
Serious and organised crime (SOC) is integral to the economy of the borderlands, with both local communities and armed groups relying on it. SOC in the borderlands has direct and serious negative effects on the rest of the country, helping to exacerbate Pakistan’s already acute economic crisis, while fuelling state corruption.
In response to challenges, Pakistan has increased military operations in the borderlands and accelerated a policy of border securitisation, the adverse effects of which have fuelled historic resentment in the region against the state. This has been met with further hardline tactics and repression, including in response to civil society protests.
Overall, instability in the Pakistan-Afghanistan borderlands feeds into and exacerbates the multiple crises already facing Pakistan, further diminishing state capacity to respond to these effectively.
This is one of two evidence reviews conducted for XCEPT exploring different aspects of the implications for Pakistan of instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands. The other review looks at how recent clashes on the border impact the military and power elites in Pakistan. Read it here.