Despite taking issue with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Saudi Arabia became greatly concerned about Syria’s future following its ouster. The reasons for this are numerous. Türkiye is expanding its authority over northern Syria through its military presence there and its support for Syrian factions that could seek to reorder power arrangements to the detriment of Saudi Arabia. The toppling of the regime in Damascus has also altered the dynamics for Iran, which had helped to keep Assad in power and is now scrambling for a way to regain some measure of influence over the country—a prospect dreaded by Riyadh. Additionally, Israel has emerged as a persistent thorn in the Saudis’ side by weakening the new Syrian regime and its armed forces, and also by establishing political and economic links with Druze notables in order gain leverage over the community.
Thus, Saudi Arabia is on edge. Its immediate concerns are preventing sectarian conflict in Syria and ensuring security along its borders with Jordan and Iraq, which are vulnerable to spillover from Syria—whether of hardline Sunni Islamist ideology, Iranian proxy militia activity, or the Captagon trade. Its long-term interests lie in reviving Saudi influence in Syria as well as in the region as a whole. The feeling in Riyadh is that Saudi Arabia must recalibrate its strategy vis-à-vis Syria in order to strike a balance between stabilizing the country on the one hand and countering rising Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli influence on the other.
Read full article here.